Recovering from a Game One Loss

Talking about the Phillies this morning is fairly easy.  The winners of Game One have won 11 of the last 12 World Series.  The Phillies are in great shape, and, as stated in my preview, they have the best starting pitcher in the Series.  The Yankees, in contrast, have questions to answer.  How do they respond to dropping the first game?  Let me give two brief examples from Yankees history to illustrate how they could respond to a Game One loss.

In 1963, the Yankees were the two-time defending champions and facing the underdog Dodgers. In Game One, Sandy Koufax struck out the first 5 batters he faced, did not allow a base runner until the bottom of the 5th, and finished the game with 15 strikeouts. The Dodgers cruised to a 5-2 victory, scoring their two runs on a Tommy Tresh home run in the 8th. The Yankees never recovered. They dropped Game Two, 4-1, Game Three, 1-0, and Game Four, 2-1. For the Series, the Yankees hit .171 with a .448 OPS. This was a Yankees team that was second in the AL in batting average, runs, and OPS during the regular season. Nevertheless, they were destroyed by superior pitching.

In 1996, the Yankees were the underdogs against the defending champion Atlanta Braves. In Game One, the Braves crushed the Yankees 12-1, behind a solid performance from John Smoltz and a two home runs from Andruw Jones. The Yankees followed this up by dropping Game Two 4-0 to Greg Maddux. However, the Yankees roared back with 4 straight close wins, 5-2, 8-6, 1-0, 3-2, the first three coming in Atlanta. For the Series, the Yankees were outhit by 40 points of batting average and 100 points of OPS. They also had an ERA 1.6 higher than the Braves, yet they took the Series. The 1996 Yankees were fortunate; for the season they were only 9th in Runs and 3rd in Runs Allowed. The Braves were 4th in Runs and 1st in Runs Allowed, coming off a World Series win, but they could not put the Yankees away.

Do the Yankees still have hope? Of course they do. During the regular season, they were the better team. They just faced the best pitcher they will face this postseason. Now they need to come back against a 37-year-old Pedro Martinez, a much more favorable matchup. If they don’t win tonight, 1996 demonstrates the Series is still not over.

How worried should Yankees fans be?

Building a Winner

Four different teams made it to the LCS this year. Where did they come from? I have already addressed the Phillies, and the folks at River Avenue Blues covered the Yankees. I would like to address the two Los Angeles teams briefly to see what we can learn about building the best teams in baseball.

Los Angeles Dodgers
1B – James Loney – 1st Round Draft Pick, 2002
2B – Orlando Hudson – Signed as Free Agent from Arizona, 2009
SS – Rafael Furcal – Signed as Free Agent from Atlanta,
3B – Casey Blake – Traded by Cleveland, 2008
RF – Andre Ethier – Traded by Oakland, 2005
CF – Matt Kemp – 6th Round Draft Pick, 2003
LF – Manny Ramirez – Traded by Boston, 2008
C – Russell Martin – 17th Round Draft Pick, 2002
SP – Clayton Kershaw – 1st Round Draft Pick, 2006
SP – Randy Wolf – Signed as Free Agent from Houston, 2009
SP – Clay Billingsley – 1st Round Draft Pick, 2003
SP – Hiroki Kuroda – Signed as Free Agent from Japan, 2007
CL – Jonathan Broxton – 2nd Round Draft Pick, 2002

The Dodgers acquired 6 players via the draft, 3 from trades, 3 from free agency, and 1 from Japan.

Los Angeles Angels
 1B – Kendry Morales – Signed as Amateur Free Agent, 2005
2B – Howie Kendrick – 10th round Draft Pick, 2002
SS – Erick Aybar – Signed as Amateur Free Agent, 2002
 3B – Chone Figgins – Traded by Colorado, 2001
RF – Bobby Abreu – Signed as Free Agent from Yankees, 2009
CF – Torii Hunter – Signed as Free Agent from Minnesota, 2007
LF – Juan Rivera – Traded by Washington, 2004
C – Mike Napoli – 17th Round Draft Pick, 2000
DH – Vladimir Guerrero – Signed as Free Agent from Nationals, 2004
SP – Jered Weaver – 1st Round Draft Pick, 2004
SP – John Lackey – 2nd Round Draft Pick, 1999
SP – Scott Kazmir – Traded by Tampa Bay, 2009
SP – Joe Saunders – 1st Round Draft Pick, 2002
CL – Brian Fuentes – Signed as Free Agent from Colorado, 2008

The Angels acquired 5 players via draft, 3 via trades, 4 via free agency, and 2 as amateur free agents.

None of these teams are completely bought. The Phillies acquired 8 through the traditional draft, Rule 5 draft, or amateur free agency. The Yankees acquired 7 that way, plus another through Japanese free agency. The Dodgers acquired 6 like the Phillies and join the Yankees with 1 from Japan. Finally, the Angels 7 through the draft and amateur free agency. Overall, the Phillies are the most homegrown team, and either of the LA teams have brought in the most players from other teams.

What conclusions should we draw from this?

Revisiting the Postseason’s Worst Hitters

Last week, I posted a feature on the worst hitters in the postseason.  I would like to revisit that today now that we are down to four teams.  In particular we have evidence from play in the LDS to determine which hitters are integral parts of their teams and which are merely on the bench.

New York Yankees – Jose Molina, C – Last time I picked Melky Cabrera, and he remains the weakest Yankee hitter that will start every game. However, as Molina is officially the starting catcher when A.J. Burnett pitches, which could happen twice in the ALCS, I think he deserves the title. Molina is an atrocious hitter, with an OPS of .560, down from his career mark of .609, and a wOBA of .260. The Yankees, of course, have one advantage at this point; it is easy to hide Molina in the Yankee lineup.

Los Angeles Angels – Jeff Mathis, C – If the Yankees are going to be docked for the normal backup catcher, the Angels deserve the same treatment. Mathis played in two of the three LDS games, starting Game 1. As Lackey’s catcher, he could start 2 or 3 games in the LCS, depending on how Mike Scioscia sets up the Angels rotation. Mathis can’t hit. He had a .596 OPS this season, right in line with his career .597. His wOBA was .264, which only looks good in comparison to Molina. In both the Yankees and Angels cases, they have good hitting catchers, but they each choose to play weak hitters with regularity.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Russell Martin, C – Martin had an OPS of .680 with a wOBA of .307. This year is completely out of line with Martin’s previous career, though it did continue into the LDS. In the series with St. Louis, Martin got one hit in nine at-bats, though he did draw three walks.

Philadelphia Phillies – Pedro Feliz, 3B – Feliz and Martin remain from the original list. Though Feliz is no longer as good a third basemen as he was three years ago, he is still well above average. However, he has never been an acceptable hitter, let alone a good one. For the season, Feliz had an OPS of .694 and a wOBA of .302.

For what it is worth, these players group together along series lines. Both backups that start occasionally face-off, while both poor hitting starters face off in the other league. Given that, the Yankees probably have the smallest of advantages; Jose Molina should play the least.

The Postseason’s Worst Hitters

Who are the weakest regular hitters on each team in the postseason?  I want to exclude the Tigers and Twins for now, though I have hinted previously at a variety of weak Twins hitters.

New York Yankees – Melky Cabrera, CF – Has a .752 OPS and is at best an average center fielder.  Unfortunately, his replacement Brett Gardner has an even worse bat.
Los Angeles Angels – Gary Matthews, Jr., CF – Has .697 OPS and is a subpar outfielder. Unlike Cabrera, the Angels run a variety of players through the outfield, so Matthews may not play much in the postseason.
Boston Red Sox – Jason Varitek, C – Has a .703 OPS, though he still has a decent OBP given a batting average of only .209. For the Red Sox sake, he needs to sit behind Victor Martinez as much as possible.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Russell Martin, C – OPS dropped 100 points from 2008 to 2009. Just .680 this season. The Dodgers must hope that the entire regular season was just an aberration.
Philadelphia Phillies – Pedro Feliz, 3B – OPS of .694, right in line with his career averages. The Phillies desperately need a better third basemen. Feliz’s one plus is that he is a good fielding third baseman.
St. Louis Cardinals – Colby Rasmus, CF – OPS of .714. Was on pace to be Rookie of the Year at the All Star break and then fell back in the second half. Certainly the most promising of the weak hitters on this list, and he is also playing well in center.
Colorado Rockies – Clint Barmes, 2B – OPS of .743 though a solid shortstop. Horrible home-road splits, with an .834 OPS at home and .631 on the road. What batting skill he has is purely a product of Coors Field.

The postseason is a very small sample. Despite the overall weaknesses of each of these hitters, you cannot conclude that they will be a drain on the postseason roster, though it is likely. In 1991, Mark Lemke posted an OPS of .617 while playing 2B for the Braves. However in the 1991 World Series, he posted an OPS of 1.170, dominating Twins pitching. Strange things can happen in a short series.

Who do you think will be surprisingly good (or bad) this postseason?